Seasonal patterns trump fundamentals analysis

The historical data confirms the stark divergence you are seeing heading into September. We have a clear setup where fundamental catalysts are directly challenging historical seasonal headwinds for some names, while perfectly aligning with seasonal tailwinds for others.

Here is an expanded look at the dynamics driving these two groups based on the latest data.

The September Curse vs. Fundamental Breakouts

Historically, September has indeed been punishing for this group. Since 2010, AMD has only closed positive in 25% of Septembers (averaging -2.7%), NFLX has a 50% win rate (averaging -2.9%), and CRM has a 44% win rate (averaging -2.2%).

However, CRM is entering this September with a fundamental backdrop that could aggressively override its seasonal weakness:

• Massive Earnings Beat: On August 26, CRM reported Q2 EPS of $5.90, crushing estimates of $3.09 by nearly 91% and representing a 102% year-over-year increase. Revenue also beat expectations at $11.3 billion.
• The AI Catalyst: The newly announced "Claudeforce" collaboration with Anthropic and surging Agentforce usage are actively shifting the narrative. CEO Marc Benioff used the call to dismiss "SaaSpocalypse" fears, pointing to a reacceleration in organic revenue for the second half of the year.
• Wall Street Reaction: The blowout quarter triggered a wave of aggressive price target hikes across the board, including Needham maintaining a $400 target and several others pushing into the $275–$300 range.

Legacy Tech: Where Seasonality Meets Infrastructure Demand

On the other side, legacy tech names are entering their strongest seasonal window with massive structural tailwinds. INTC boasts a 69% win rate in September with an average gain of +3.9%, while ORCL and IBM both average +2.4%.

INTC (Intel): Beyond its historical +3.9% September average, Intel is uniquely positioned as a geopolitical and infrastructure play right now.

• Tariff Tailwinds: Recent reports indicate the U.S. administration is weighing a new round of sweeping tariffs on semiconductors. This directly benefits Intel's domestic foundry ambitions.
• Capitalizing for Growth: The company recently upsized a stock offering to $20 billion to fund its aggressive AI and foundry buildout. While equity raises often dilute and pressure stocks, the move has attracted significant confidence, including a $12 million personal stock purchase by CEO Lip-Bu Tan and institutional accumulation from Tiger Global and Coatue.

ORCL (Oracle): Oracle’s +2.4% historical September gain is currently being fueled by its transformation into a core AI infrastructure provider.

• Massive Backlogs: Oracle is sitting on a staggering $638 billion backlog driven by hyperscaler data center demand.
• Cloud Partnerships: The company just announced an expanded, long-term strategic collaboration with AWS, making the Oracle AI Database available across 22 AWS regions. They also recently inked a major quantum cloud computing deal with Quantinuum.
• The Leverage Risk: It is worth noting that Oracle is aggressively borrowing to fund this AI data center expansion, which has drawn warnings from short-sellers like Michael Burry and sparked some credit rating concerns. However, for now, the market is heavily rewarding their infrastructure growth.

Summary: You are looking at a classic clash of seasonality versus structural catalysts. CRM has the earnings momentum to potentially break its September curse, while INTC and ORCL have a rare alignment of bullish seasonality, geopolitical tailwinds, and massive AI infrastructure spending.