Earnings prediction comparison
Sidekick AI chat created on TrendSpider.
there are 3 earnings I'm looking at tonight. It's $STX $V and $BE. Which one is the best opportunity to beat earnings and go higher? Look in to both technicals and fundamentals and use every tool at your disposal including options, dark pool and options implied move. Give me a 1-2 sentence prediction for each of the 3 as you're a wall street expert.
Now let me fetch the implied move data from the options chain and fundamentals:
Let me process the data
STX price action: From ~$726 on May 1 → peaked ~$1,094 on Jun 22 → sold off hard to $754 today. That's a -31% drawdown from peak in ~5 weeks. Currently down -7.7% today alone. Heading into earnings already weakened.
- Previous earnings (Apr 28): EPS beat +18.84%, Rev beat +5.34%
- Tonight's estimate: EPS $5.04, Rev $3.5B. Last quarter actual was EPS $4.10, Rev $3.1B — so expectations have stepped up significantly.
- Analysts: 12 buys, 3 holds, massive PT upgrades to $1,000-$1,300 range post last earnings
- Dark pool: Spiked to 14.6M week of Jun 22 then fell; most recent data is from Jun 22 — no recent spike
- Options: ATM IV is an extreme ~178-182% on the 3 DTE calls. That implies a huge expected move. Implied move for $754 stock at ~180% IV for 3 days: 180% * sqrt(3/252) ≈ 180% * 0.109 = ~19.6% expected move
- Unusual options: Very mixed today — significant PUT buying on the Jan'28 $690/$680 strikes (bearish hedges), but also big bullish sweeps on the $730 CALL for Aug 7 ($348K), $850 CALL sweeps. NET is mixed-to-bearish leaning on near-term, with some longer-dated bulls
- Fundamentals: Revenue growing every quarter (now $3.1B), gross margin expanding rapidly (31.7% → 46.5%), FCF exploding ($953M last quarter), net debt falling. PE is 40.7x (elevated but justified by growth). It's a momentum story.
V price action: Trending steadily upward from ~$312 (Jun 3) to $369 today. Clean uptrend. Currently up ~1.7% today into earnings.
- Previous earnings (Apr 28): EPS beat +6.77%, Rev beat +4.56%
- Tonight's estimate: EPS $3.22, Rev $11.4B
- Analysts: Heavy buy-side, PT range $365-$420+. Very consistent
- Dark pool: Steady at 12.5-20.5M/week. Most recent (Jun 22) was 20.5M - solid institutional accumulation in an uptrend
- Options: ATM IV only ~49% on 3 DTE calls. Implied move: 49% * sqrt(3/252) ≈ 49% * 0.109 = ~5.3% expected move
- Unusual options: Significant sweep buying $Jan 2028 $280 CALL ($226K), Dec 2028 $330 CALL ($241K), aggressive $345 CALL sweeps yesterday. Net bullish tilt
- Fundamentals: 97.7% gross margin (one of best businesses on earth), 53.6% net margin, consistent revenue growth, $2.6B FCF last quarter alone, PE at 26x (more reasonable vs historical 33-35x). Shareholder-friendly.
BE price action: From ~$290 on May 1 → peaked at $345 (Jun 22) → crashed hard to ~$163 today. Down -13% today ALONE. That's a -53% drawdown from peak. Very volatile.
- Previous earnings (Apr 28): MASSIVE beat — EPS +340% surprise, Rev +41.27% surprise. This set sky-high expectations.
- Tonight's estimate: EPS $0.36, Rev $804.2M. (vs $751M last Q)
- Analysts: Mixed — several holds (Barclays, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, TD Cowen, Jefferies) alongside buys (BTIG, JP Morgan, Susquehanna, RBC, UBS). Recent JP Morgan upgrade to $346 on Jul 21.
- Dark pool: Very elevated — 42.8M week of Jun 22 (vs typical 18-28M). Significant institutional activity.
- Options: ATM IV is an insane ~300% on 3 DTE calls. Implied move: 300% * sqrt(3/252) ≈ 300% * 0.109 = ~32.7% expected move. Market is pricing in EXTREME volatility.
- Unusual options: Massively bullish unusual flow today — millions of dollars in sweeps on the Aug $230 CALL (a 40%+ OTM call!) — $4M single trade, multiple $800K+ sweeps. Someone is making a HUGE bet on a squeeze higher. Also big $300 CALL sweep on Dec 2026. However there's also protective put buying.
- Fundamentals: Revenue growing explosively (from $326M → $751M in one year). Gross margin improving (20% → 30%). FCF turned positive Q1 2026 ($47.4M). But stock is now trading at PS of 15.7x (was 2x a year ago) — valuation got stretched, hence the selloff.
Now I have everything I need. Let me synthesize the full picture across all three names.
Here's the full breakdown for tonight's three earnings reports:
STX — Seagate Technology | Currently: ~$754 ⬇️ -7.7% today
Technicals: Ugly setup. Peak-to-trough of -31% from $1,094 (Jun 22) to $754 today, with a sharp sell-off today of ~$63 (-7.7%). The stock is in clear distribution mode heading into the print.
Fundamentals: The story itself is strong — revenue up 44% YoY last quarter, gross margins expanding every single quarter (31.7% → 46.5%), FCF exploded to $953M. EPS tonight consensus is $5.04 vs last quarter's actual $4.10. That's a big step-up. Analysts have PTs all the way to $1,300 (Cantor Fitzgerald).
Options / Dark Pool: ATM IV is ~178-182% — implying a ~19-20% move post-earnings. Unusual options flow today is conflicted — large bearish Jan 2028 PUT sweeps ($690/$680 strikes) alongside bullish $730/$850 CALL sweeps. Not a clean signal.
🔮 Prediction: The setup is challenging — stock has been dumped hard ahead of the print, which can mean either smart money de-risking or a potential snapback if they beat big again. Given the sky-high expectations baked in ($5.04 EPS) and the already-elevated PE of 40x, a beat + raise is needed to reverse this trend; anything softer and it could flush toward $650.
V — Visa | Currently: ~$369 ⬆️ +1.7% today
Technicals: Cleanest chart of the three. Steady grind from $312 → $369 over 7 weeks, no real pullback. Trading right near highs heading in — a bullish technical context for earnings.
Fundamentals: Visa is a money-printing machine — 97.7% gross margin, 53.6% net margin, consistent mid-teens revenue growth. PE has actually compressed to 26x (from 33-35x a year ago) — this is relatively cheap for Visa. Consensus: EPS $3.22, Rev $11.4B. Last quarter beat on both.
Options / Dark Pool: ATM IV is only ~49%, pricing in a modest ~5% implied move — low risk/reward ratio. Dark pool volume was steady and elevated (20.5M week of Jun 22). Unusual flow over the last week leans bullish — $Jan 2028 $280 CALLs, Dec 2028 $330 CALLs, Oct $370 CALL sweeps yesterday.
🔮 Prediction: V is the lowest-risk setup of the three — clean uptrend, compressed valuation, reliable beat history, and institutional accumulation visible in dark pool; it's the most likely to beat and grind higher, though the implied ~5% move means the upside is measured rather than explosive.
BE — Bloom Energy | Currently: ~$163 ⬇️ -13% today
Technicals: Absolute carnage. From $345 peak (Jun 22) down -53% to ~$163 today. Down 13% on the day of earnings. Pre-earnings sell-off of this magnitude is either panic-selling into uncertainty or informed de-risking.
Fundamentals: The Q1 beat was a monster (+340% EPS surprise, +41% revenue surprise). Now the bar is steep: $0.36 EPS and $804M rev. Revenue has been growing explosively but the PS ratio went from ~2x to ~16x in one year — the market priced in perfection and is now repricing. Gross margin is still only ~30%.
Options / Dark Pool: This is the WILD CARD. ATM IV is ~300%, implying a staggering ~30-33% move either way. Dark pool volume hit a massive 42.8M week of Jun 22 — significant institutional positioning. The standout: today there was a single $4M sweep on the Aug $230 CALL (a ~40% OTM strike!) plus dozens of additional $230 CALL sweeps totaling millions more — someone is aggressively positioning for a massive squeeze higher post-print. That's the most aggressive unusual options signal of the three names by far.
🔮 Prediction: BE is the highest-risk, highest-reward of the three — the massive $230 CALL sweeps suggest smart money is betting on a violent short squeeze if they deliver another blowout, but the stock has already been cut in half from its high and the bar is elevated; if they miss even slightly, the selling won't stop.
Summary Ranking
| Beat & Go Higher Odds | Implied Move | Risk Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| V | Highest ⭐ | ~5% | Low |
| BE | High (binary) | ~30-33% | Very High |
| STX | Moderate | ~19-20% | High |
Bottom line: V is the highest-probability, lowest-drama beat-and-rally setup. BE offers the biggest potential payout if unusual options flow is right, but it's a coin flip with a grenade attached. STX is technically damaged and needs to clear a high bar — most challenged setup of the three.
> ⚠️ Not financial advice. Always size appropriately into binary events.
Create alerts on all three for post-earnings price moves | Pull the BE earnings call transcript after tonight to assess guidance quality
can you update your analysis now that earnings are out
BE closed regular session at ~$163.69. After-hours latest print: $185.55. Change = (185.55 - 163.69) / 163.69 = +13.35% STX: closed $754, AH $810 = +7.42% V: closed $368.87, AH $360.85 = -2.18%
Here's the full post-earnings update. All three reported tonight — let's go through each:
STX — Seagate Technology 🟢 STRONG BEAT
Results: EPS $5.71 vs $5.04 est (+13.3% beat) | Revenue $3.63B vs $3.5B est (+4.2% beat) | Revenue +48.5% YoY
Guidance (the real headline): Q1 EPS guided to $7.10–$7.50 vs $5.80 est — a massive 25%+ above consensus. Revenue guided $4.0–4.2B vs $3.75B est.
Post-market price action: Closed at ~$754, jumped to $810 in after-hours (~+7.4%).
Key risk: The broader memory/storage sector is getting crushed by China's CXMT fears — STX is being dragged into that narrative despite being a hard disk drive company, not DRAM. That headwind was the entire pre-earnings selloff (-8% from $851 to $754 today).
> Verdict: This was the best fundamental beat of the three by a mile. The guidance blowout is extraordinary — STX essentially guided for a step-change acceleration in earnings. The after-hours move is real and deserved. The only caveat is the China memory overhang which could cap upside near-term, but the beat + guide here is undeniably the strongest of the night.
V — Visa 🟡 MODEST BEAT, HEADWIND EMERGING
Results: EPS $3.32 vs $3.22 est (+3.1% beat) | Revenue $11.6B vs $11.4B est (+2.3% beat) | Revenue +14.4% YoY
Post-market price action: Closed at ~$368.87, slipped to ~$360.85 in after-hours (~-2.2%).
Key risk: Bloomberg reported today that Visa is cutting 7% of its workforce — that's a significant headline that may be overshadowing the beat. The market is clearly pricing that as more meaningful than the modest EPS/rev upside.
> Verdict: A clean but thin beat — nothing wrong with the numbers per se, but the workforce cut news is creating a negative narrative overhang. The stock is selling off despite the beat, which tells you the market isn't satisfied. Pre-earnings this was already a low-IV, low-surprise-potential setup (~49% IV vs STX's 178%), and it's playing out exactly that way.
BE — Bloom Energy 🟢🟢 MASSIVE BLOWOUT
Results: EPS $0.78 vs $0.36 est (+116.7% beat) | Revenue $1.065B vs $804M est (+32.4% beat) | Revenue +165% YoY
Guidance raised: FY2026 EPS raised to $2.55–$2.85 vs $2.15 est. FY2026 revenue raised to $3.9–4.2B vs $3.72B est.
Post-market price action: Closed at ~$163.69, surging to $185.55 in after-hours (~+13.4%).
> Verdict: BE is the shock of the night. EPS more than doubled the estimate, revenue came in $261M above consensus, and guidance was raised massively. This is a true earnings blowout — the kind that reprices a stock. The pre-earnings selloff from $295 down to $163 set up an extremely compressed spring, and this report just released it hard.
📊 Post-Earnings Scorecard
| EPS Beat | Rev Beat | Guide | AH Move | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STX | +13.3% | +4.2% | Way above est | +7.4% |
| V | +3.1% | +2.3% | N/A | -2.2% |
| BE | +116.7% | +32.4% | Raised big | +13.4% |
Bottom line: BE wins the night on pure beat magnitude and guidance raise. STX is a very close second with an exceptional setup if the China memory fear narrative fades. V disappointed relative to expectations — the workforce cut news is a problem.
Not financial advice — these are data-driven observations only.
