Earnings Week Upside Plays

S&P 500 names reporting 10–14 Aug 2026

Only ten S&P 500 constituents report that week: SPG (10 Aug), CAH, LITE, SMCI (11 Aug), AMCR, TRMB, COHR, CSCO (12 Aug), AMAT, TPR (13 Aug). I researched nine of them in depth; the SPG data pull failed and I won't guess at it.

Before the picks, one correction to your framing: you asked for names where estimates were revised up and the stock has sold off. Only two of the nine actually satisfy both. Most of this week's reporters (CAH, TPR, CSCO, AMCR, COHR) are sitting within a few percent of 52-week highs after huge runs. If you screen those as "discounts," you're anchoring on old prices.

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1. AMAT — strongest revision tape + a real drawdown

• Analyst revisions, last 90 days: 43 records, 41 price-target RAISES, 0 cuts. One rating downgrade (Morgan Stanley, 18 May) — and that same firm then raised its target 502 → 647. Targets went from ~450–500 in May to 650–900 by mid-July.
• Average target $662.82, median $675 vs price $539.14 → +22.9% / +25.2% implied upside.
• Price: −27.1% below the 52-week high ($739.67, 30 Jun), and 2.5% below the 50-day SMA ($553.11). It fell from 739.67 to 436.33 intraday in July, then bounced 23.6%.
• EPS beat in 10 of the last 10 quarters (median surprise ~+5%).
• Options: ATM IV for the 14 Aug expiry is 81.5% calls vs 95.7% puts — heavy downside skew, i.e. protection is expensive.
• Honest risks: the bar is high (consensus $3.38 EPS = +36% YoY, $9.0B revenue = +23% YoY, +14% sequentially); free cash flow collapsed to $210M from $2.0B two quarters earlier; ~50x trailing GAAP earnings and 2–5x industry medians; and no analyst has re-marked their model since 15 Jul, before the crash. That stale tape is the main bias trap here.

2. SMCI — the only genuine deep-discount name

• 6 target raises vs 1 cut in 90 days (Needham 40→46, Rosenblatt 40→45, Barclays 34→38, Citi 31→33, Mizuho 30→36→44 then 44→34). Zero rating upgrades; 4 of 6 firms sit at hold.
• Average target $39.20, median $38.00 vs $31.13 → +25.9% / +22.1% upside.
• −47.0% below the 52-week high, −33.3% over 12 months, trading below both the 50-DMA (31.86) and 200-DMA (32.19). This is the only name on the list that is actually cheap versus its own recent history.
• Options positioning is the most bullish of the group: call OI ~5:1 over puts near the money, a 45.4K-contract 21 Aug $34 call line, 28.1K on 18 Sep $36 calls, and the two largest recent put prints were sold at the bid, not bought.
• 4 of 4 last quarters beat EPS; but only 1 of 4 beat on revenue (last quarter missed revenue by 17.6%).
• Big caveat: SMCI pre-announced Q4 on 21 Jul — revenue "near the low end of $11.0–12.5B" (below the $11.5B consensus), gross margin 15–17%, $60B+ backlog. The stock already jumped ~26% on that, so the good news is partly banked. FCF was −$6.7B in one quarter, debt nearly doubled to $8.8B, net debt/EBITDA 11.5x. Options price a ±14% move.

3. CSCO — cleanest quality + unanimous upward revisions (but no discount)

• 15 target raises, 0 cuts, 1 upgrade (HSBC hold→buy, 15 May). Ratings 9 buy / 2 hold / 0 sell.
• Average target $134.00, median $132 vs $121.43 → +10.4% / +8.7%.
• EPS beat 10 of 10 quarters; 25.0% operating margin vs a 5.6% industry median; $11.7B TTM free cash flow.
• Where it fails your screen: only −6.85% off the 52-week high, +73.7% over 12 months, +33.8% above the 200-DMA, and ~29x complete-FY26 non-GAAP earnings — every valuation metric at an 8-quarter high. Also, 11 of the 15 target raises landed on 14–15 May right after the last print; no analyst action since 25 Jun.

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Why I left the others out

Ticker	Revisions (90d)	Off 52wk high	Verdict
TRMB	3 cuts, 0 raises	−32.0%	Real discount, but revisions are negative; targets fell slower than price
CAH	5 raises, 0 cuts	−3.5%	Good tape, zero discount; fiscal-Q4 print was last year's worst reaction (−7.3%)
TPR	5 raises, 0 cuts	−1.0%	At the high; beat EPS 4/4 and still fell in 3 of 4 prints
COHR	1 raise, 0 cuts	−13.8%	Already +70.7% in six sessions; trades AT the average Street target; 4 straight negative-FCF quarters
LITE	1 upgrade, 1 target cut	−18.0%	$75.2M insider selling, zero insider buys; 130x PE
AMCR	1 downgrade, net flat	−5.4%	Average target $47.00 is below the $47.86 price

Two things worth knowing about the data itself: dark-pool (ATS) volume stops at the week of 29 Jun 2026 for every one of these names, so nobody — me included — can read institutional off-exchange flow into these specific prints. And FINRA short volume was flat-to-falling across all of them, so there's no squeeze setup anywhere in this group.

If I had to state the trade-off plainly: AMAT gives you the strongest estimate-revision evidence with a genuine 27% drawdown; SMCI gives you the deepest discount and the most bullish options positioning but has already pre-released the quarter; CSCO gives you the highest-quality business and an unbroken beat record but no valuation cushion at all. All three are priced for ±6% to ±14% moves, so the options market is not offering a cheap way to express any of this.

I can't make this decision for you, and none of the above is trading advice — post-earnings reactions in this group have repeatedly gone against the fundamentals (TPR beat by 28.7% and fell 12.3%), which is exactly why beat streaks alone shouldn't drive the position.